التقييم الأوّلي للأضرار الناجمة عن حرب غزة كارثية و18.5 مليار دولار حجم خسائر البنية التحتية

العرب اليوم2024-04-09آخر تحديث: 2024-04-09

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The World Bank, the European Union, and the United Nations estimated the direct damage to built infrastructure in Gaza as a result of the Israeli bombing at about $18.5 billion, equivalent to 97 percent of the gross domestic product of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022. This data covered the period from October 7 (October ) 2023 to January 26, 2024, meaning that it is expected to be more high after this period, knowing that the report issued by the three institutions indicates that the cost of damage exceeded the numbers for the conflicts of 2014 and 2021 by multiples.

The World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations issued a report on the initial assessment they conducted of the initial damage resulting from the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip and its humanitarian and economic impacts, with the aim of providing a comprehensive analysis of the scale of the unprecedented destruction and informing national stakeholders and the international community of the initial extent of the conflict’s damage in both material and monetary terms, to be Serves as a ready basis to support and facilitate rapid assessment of future damage and development of a roadmap for recovery.

While the assessments of the physical and economic impacts were based on data covering the period from October 7, 2023 to January 26, 2024, the figures related to the victims and human impact were updated until March 14, 2024, and the assessment relied on quantitative and qualitative data provided by Ipsos. », which the World Bank has contracted since early November 2023. The report noted that RNA experiences often show that ultimate needs for recovery and reconstruction tend to be several times higher based on different RNA experiences ( For example, for the 2014 Gaza conflict, damages were $1.4 billion, while needs were $3.9 billion).

The conflict has caused loss of life, forced displacement, and damage to social, physical and productive infrastructure at an unprecedented speed and scale. Development partners have repeatedly described it as an extremely serious humanitarian crisis. As of the end of January 2024, direct damage to built infrastructure in Gaza amounted to about $18.5 billion, equivalent to 97 percent of the gross domestic product of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022.

The conflict has also led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. As of March 14, more than 31,000 people have been killed in Gaza, and reports indicate that about 70 percent of them are women and children. 1.7 million people (or about 75 percent of the population) were also displaced in Gaza. Overall, the period of violent conflict from October 2023 to the present is by many standards the most deadly and destructive episode in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The shock to Gaza’s economy as a result of the ongoing conflict is one of the largest observed in modern economic history. The scale of loss of life and rapid and widespread damage to infrastructure exceeded any standards set by historical precedent both within the region and in recent global conflicts. The conflict has caused widespread and lasting damage, affecting almost all economic sectors, with serious consequences for tangible assets, income and human capital.

The consequences of this shock are expected to constitute a significant and prolonged burden on economic activities for several years to come. According to preliminary year-end estimates, Gaza’s GDP contracted by 24 percent in 2023, on an annual basis.

Statistics for the fourth quarter of 2023 paint a more worrying picture, as they indicate an 86 percent contraction in Gaza’s economy in this quarter alone, compared to the same period of the previous year and quarter. The negative repercussions are expected to escalate in 2024, due to delayed effects. Based on damage data, if reconstruction begins after 2024, the economic contraction in Gaza is expected to worsen significantly this year, exceeding 50 percent (on an annual basis in 2024), with the effects of capital destruction continuing.

The majority of Palestinians in Gaza are now multidimensionally poor, and 74 percent of them are unemployed. Gaza’s GDP fell by 86 percent in the last quarter of 2023, equivalent to a 24 percent decline year-on-year. More than 72 percent of the damage was concentrated on residential buildings, and the trade, industry, and services sector sustained 9 percent of the damage, while 19 percent of infrastructure and other vital services were damaged, and 80 percent of the damage was concentrated in the governorates of Gaza, North Gaza, and Khan Yunis. The Gaza Municipality alone bore $7.29 billion of the total damage, followed by Jabalia with $2.01 billion, Khan Yunis with $1.82 million, and Beit Lahia with $1.08 billion of the total damage. The estimated costs contained in this memorandum are expected to rise significantly, as well as the extent of damage, as the conflict continues.

The sectors that suffered the greatest estimated damage include the housing sector, at about $13.29 billion, as more than 1.08 million people will not be able to return to their homes, and the trade, industry, and services sector, at $1.65 billion, as nearly four out of every five establishments in the sector received damage. Massive or completely destroyed, affecting all industries, halting economic activities and causing the unemployment rate to rise by more than 50 percent. The number of commercial, industrial and service establishments in Gaza is estimated at approximately 56 thousand establishments employing 173 thousand people, and approximately 80 percent of the establishments have been destroyed or damaged. Then agriculture amounted to $629 million, health amounted to $554 million, as 29 hospitals, representing more than three-quarters of hospitals, suffered damage worth more than $222 million, and water, sanitation and hygiene amounted to $503 million. The value of damage to educational infrastructure amounted to $341 million, and it is estimated that 56 school facilities were destroyed, 219 of which were partially damaged.

According to projections from the latest Integrated Phase Classification of Food Insecurity (IPC), more than half of Gaza’s population is on the brink of famine and the entire population suffers from severe food insecurity and malnutrition.

Palestinians in Gaza now constitute 80 percent of the total number of people facing famine or extreme hunger globally. The amount of humanitarian aid reaching Palestinians in Gaza remains woefully inadequate compared to the needs. According to IPC projections, approximately 2.13 million people across the Gaza Strip faced high levels of acute food insecurity classified as IPC Phase 3 between 15 February and 15 March, including About 677,000 people suffer from catastrophic food insecurity (stage 5 of the classification), which is characterized by food shortages, hunger, and exhausted resilience. According to UNICEF, one in every six children under the age of two suffers from acute malnutrition.

It is estimated that 17,000 children have been separated from their families, making them particularly vulnerable to various forms of exploitation and abuse. Due to the ongoing trauma associated with ongoing violence, mental health has deteriorated sharply, especially among vulnerable groups including women, children, the elderly and people with disabilities.

Many sites of important heritage value were also destroyed, and the initial assessment indicates damage estimated at approximately $319 million. Significant levels of destruction are also visible in the agricultural sector, with total damage estimated at $629 million, threatening livelihoods and increasing food insecurity for Gazans. Damage to the transportation and information and communications technology sectors is estimated at $448 million, affecting communications, mobility, and the provision of humanitarian aid to the population. Environmental damage is estimated at $411 million. Removing the rubble alone will cost about $327 million and will require an effort that will last for years.

The level of destruction in the Gaza Strip since October 2023 is unprecedented. In the social sectors alone, the damage is more than 90 times higher than during the 2021 conflict and 17 times higher than in the 2014 conflict. The total cost of damage as of the end of January 2024 is approximately $18.5 billion compared to $338 million in damage resulting from the conflict. 2021 and $1.38 billion during the 2014 conflict.

The damage to the housing sector, amounting to $13.29 billion, has been particularly severe so far compared to previous events, amounting to about $144 million in the wake of the 2021 conflict, and $780 million in 2014, and in the trade, industry and services sector the cost reached $1.65 billion. . This amount is 41 times greater in the current conflict than the estimated amount of $40 million after the 2021 conflict. The damage to infrastructure sectors (municipal services, transportation, water and sanitation, energy, information and communications technology) during this ongoing conflict is 9 times greater than It happened after the 2014 conflict. In numbers, it is currently worth $1.2 billion, compared to $76.7 million in 2021, and $133 million in 2014.

As for the damage in the total social sectors (housing, health, education, and artistic heritage), it amounted to $14.5 billion in the current conflict, compared to $160 million in 2021, and $840 million in the 2014 conflict. And in the productive sectors (financial, trade, industry, and services, And agriculture) The value of the current damages amounted to about $2.2 billion, compared to $82 million in 2021, and $410 million in the 2014 conflict.

Before the conflict, Gaza was already suffering from severe unemployment rates of 45 percent, and youth unemployment was close to 60 percent before the start of hostilities. The situation has deteriorated significantly, with the percentage of unemployed people in Gaza’s labor force reaching approximately 74 percent by the end of January 2024. This unemployment is due to factors such as the loss of permanent jobs due to a combination of unprecedented destruction of physical assets, personal injuries, internal displacement and the cessation of activity. Economic.

A large number of Palestinians in Gaza were pushed into poverty due to a multi-layered shock that affected production capacity, as a result of the destruction of agricultural lands, fishing ports and local fleets, the destruction of food stores, as well as the scarcity of water, flour, fuel and electricity, in addition to the death of hungry livestock that no longer provided food. Or to be a source of food. These factors have been exacerbated by large-scale internal displacement, the destruction of homes and assets, coupled with a severe economic recession. Together, these developments have exacerbated poverty levels for those who were already vulnerable.

Multidimensional poverty in Gaza has also increased significantly due to hostilities that have interrupted children’s access to schools, as well as difficulties related to accessing health and other basic services. It is estimated that the vast majority of Palestinians in Gaza currently live in poverty, at least in the short term.

Consumer price inflation in Gaza rose by 33 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter, largely due to supply disruptions caused by the conflict. Massive shortages of basic goods have severely limited the ability of hundreds of thousands of families to purchase them, regardless of their ability to afford them. Food prices in Gaza rose by 39 percent on a quarterly basis (compared to the previous quarter) in the fourth quarter of 2023. The complete cessation of fuel and gas supplies through the crossings also led to a 143 percent increase in the price of transportation in Gaza during the fourth quarter of 2023. 2023, on a quarterly basis compared to the previous quarter.

While recovery and reconstruction will require a major, years-long effort, early recovery measures must begin as soon as the situation permits and the humanitarian aid surge is completed. Priority early recovery actions that should be taken into consideration include enabling and resuming access to basic health and education services, to restore a sense of normalcy and provide much-needed psychosocial support. Providing rapid, cost-effective and scalable solutions for shelter and rehousing for displaced people must also be prioritized, along with the resumption of basic services in the energy, water and communications sectors. In addition to humanitarian and food assistance, first-phase interventions should focus on improving food production and restoring livelihoods through cash-for-work programmes. To enable the private sector to respond to urgent needs and create jobs, priority actions include establishing temporary structures for institutions that provide essential goods and services (such as bakeries, pharmacies, retailers and distributors), establishing digital payment systems to enable electronic transactions, and renovating partially damaged facilities. Finally, priorities also include identifying and removing unexploded ordnance, as well as removing (and recycling) approximately 26 million tons of rubble. The feasibility of most of these measures will depend to a large extent on the entry of materials and equipment, safe access to sites, and clarity of administrative and security arrangements.